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Barr has been a long time great feature for a given Ko macroeconomic single level of alertness due to investors' high levels of concerns about the economic situation and lack of certainty about the quality of light given conflicting macroeconomic data released in recent months.


In light of the slowdown to the recession and attacks the house market is serious concern that the continued difficulties in the labor market could lead to a snowball that would pass through the injury significantly hurt consumer spending growth to double back into recession.


The main emphasis will be on the private sector as the government is expected to fire a fair amount of temporary workers, but these layoffs were expected in light of the end of the census project and therefore not expected to affect the market.


Many analysts attribute the data month point Peveot role of capital market - a figure well send the indices increases in the medium term and weaken the dollar, given poor will ignite a wave of dollar sales and escape.



Table data for today includes:


10:15 Consumer Price Index in Switzerland.
11:00 PMI services in Europe.
11:30 PMI services in England.
12:00 Retail sales in Europe.
15:30 monthly changes in the number of jobs without the agricultural sector (employment report / NFP), unemployment rate and the change paid while the United States.
17:00 PMI's U.S. services



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Little response was recorded following the publication of minutes of the Fed at its meeting in August, due to the sequence of the speeches of Chairman Bernanke revealed the contents of the protocol in advance. Bernanke's speeches matched the record pointed to the fact that growth has slowed in recent months.


Throughout the month of August there has been no meaningful movement stable buyers, despite the lack of willingness to buy yesterday, the wave was recorded at the end of modest purchases this month. The buyers were able to push the indices increases raised the average trading volumes over the last period.


However, even this wave was not stable enough, and managed to drag most of the investors, who preferred to sit on the fence and did not want to jump back to the stock market, especially for the employment report on Friday. Caution for the data Friday sent the index to crawl back down until the end of the trading day flat.


A glance at the data we get today with the publication of change in the number of jobs by ADP company that produces pay slips to private companies.


As a continued decline in stock markets (indices dropped three of four months) because of the increase investors' concerns and expectations for the employment figures, investors continue to pump money from the stock market bond market, while they send the bond prices and yields to the sky (the bond interest rate derivative ) new base. return on government bonds fell to 10 years closer to 2.4770% Bi low 2.42% annual


Data from Australia and China are good night sent the indices in Asia rises goals. Australia introduced a large growth in demand expected in light of immigration from China and other countries in Asia, where growth jumped to 1.2% against expectations of 0.9% only. Meanwhile, China's Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.7 to 51.6 against the expectation of an earlier reading of 51.2. Although the increase is not large, but it heralds at least stop the slowdown in companies.




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Dow Jones closed 0.05% owner of the 10 015 gate and finished the month decline of 4.31%


Nasdaq closed 0.28% decline of the cover of 2114 and ended the month decline of 6.25%



S & P 500 closed 0.01% decline of the cover of 1049, ending the month's 4.80% decline



Dax closed 0.22% owner of the cover of 5925 and ended the month decline of 3.63%



Potts closed the owner of 0.45% on the cover of 5225 and ended the month decline of 0.62%



Nikkei traded owner of 1.00% on the cover of 8912 and ended the month decline of 6.85%




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Preparations for publication of the employment report on Friday in the U.S. underway, investors are improving positions and entering on alert. Today we will look ahead and think about data from ADP employment report that prints coupons company hired private companies. In light of the swing of temporary employment by the U.S. government for census, investors search for a given private-sector jobs and a significant proportion will figure large. Therefore forecast by ADP relatively high significance of the month.




Table data today includes:
09:00 German retail sales.
09:30 change in commodity prices in Australia.
10:30 PMI Switzerland.
11:00's PMI manufacturing sector in Europe.
11:30's PMI manufacturing sector in England.
15:15 change in employment in the private sector non-farm ADP by the U.S. company.
17:00's PMI manufacturing sector spent U.S. Construction
17:30 U.S. oil stocks.





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EUR / USD
Another month of falling stock markets and led to the rate closed the month of declines against the dollar. Euro falls to break led to the average back to the delete about half the 100 monthly increase in July (the big declines course correction). With important macro data Thursday and Friday rate is currently at present, according to the mood of investors can go for low or a new record, but patience is required to detect the development of the next trend. Rate ended the last owner of 0.21% on the cover of 1.2690, expect today: See Graph A.



GBP / USD
Pound could not keep the long-term average of breaking 20 monthly, it performed last month, closed the month below the average 20, and yesterday also broke the 200 daily average. At this stage it appears that the pound will decline, but the sequel depends on developments at the scene of the dollar (mainly against Euro) share indices. If data will be better weekend Euro exchanges will begin to get the pound would join the celebration despite breaking down, but all across the state will lead to a surprising optimism for further declines. The pound finished the last drop of 0.72% on the cover of 1.5349, expect for the day: see graph in



USD / JPY:
The pair keeps close to alarming lows many years moving around the 84 dollar wine. Waiting position due to fears investors snap into positions prior to the weekend data from a position of waiting leading indicators over the strong technical support lines. Ahkorolcia (connection) between the pair exchanges is high, so it is likely that the pair will react similar to what is happening on the exchanges. Dollar finished yesterday's 0.44% decline of 84.18 Gate, Forecast for today: See Graph C



USD / CAD:
The Canadian dollar weakened in light of declines in world oil prices. Canadian dollar weakening the pair raised the technical resistance levels, the big question is whether the pair has enough momentum to break through those levels? In light of investors' unwillingness to enter a long position, there is likely to pair will continue his long shuffle (in the range of 1.01 to 1.07 in four months). Yesterday, the dollar finished the owner of 0.46% on the cover of 1.0645, forecast for today: See Graph D.



Gold:
Increase investors' concerns and expectation preparation for U.S. employment figures sent the gold to continue strengthening. Continued rise in gold stands out, especially in light of the stock markets anemia and lack of willingness of investors to enter positions. Purposefully cheat gold approaching all time high, but at this level will be dependent on the renewal, the sequel falls receiving stock markets are not good macro data. gold finished yesterday the owner of 0.89% on the cover of $ 1,247 per ounce, forecast for today: Continue on toward $ 1,260 an ounce



Oil;
Oil fell below $ 72 a barrel, given preliminary data indicate that the levels of demand going down parallel to the existence of full high. Much of the drop in oil demand due to slowdown in private consumers. Therefore, the monthly employment figures published on Friday expected to have a great impact on the price of oil, because the more employees, so consumers have more purchasing power and hence the demand exceeds (or at least demand exceeding expectations). Due to the waiting position where the market is unlikely that oil would break the barrier of the $ 70 down, but left to fix up. Forecast for today: on the $ 74.10

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Traders continued to exercise caution and refused to enter positions in light of expectations for another weak employment report expected Friday, lack of readiness of buyers to enter the game and create support for the leading indicators sent the slowly but surely close another day of sharp declines.



Measures have failed in an attempt to continue where they stopped last week, there were no significant quarterly reports yesterday will break the atmosphere Ahfasimioat private consumption due to warm U.S..



In July, personal income increased by 0.2% in accordance with the expectations of most analysts, private consumption expenditure (PCE) increased by 0.4% slightly better than expected, standing on 0.3%, but excluding transportation core private consumption rose only by 0.1% in accordance with the prediction.



While the data do not indicate a deterioration in consumers or slowed their activities, but the data were not good enough to provide inspiration and merchants do not predict an improvement in growth because there is not enough to bump the U.S. economic activity.



Consumer Action therefore reflects the behavior of capital markets traders - maintaining the existing waiting cautiously to see to see what the future holds.



Contrast to the conduct of markets and investors, we have witnessed increased activity in mergers and acquisitions (M & A):



Intel Corporation (INTC) has released a tender offer at $ 1.4 billion in cash for god company Infineon wires.


Pharmaceutical company Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) offered $ 18.5 billion in cash for the company Genzyme (GENZ), but the proposal was rejected outright on the grounds that is not enough.


All-out war between HP and Dell continues to grab headlines from HP current bid stands at $ 30 (price starting at $ 24 offered by Dell).
3M (MMM), Dow index record - Jones offered $ 430 million, or $ 10.50 per share for the company Cogent (COGT).



Despite the increased activity of mergers and acquisitions indicates that most of the Bavarian market (so it is a strong market) traders and especially the buyers were not impressed too much of Kenya and no secondary waves (about companies in parallel to those offered to buy them from the expected competition between the giants, for example if the company acquires Intel al - a thread is a good chance of its rival AMD also try to take over the market share in order to avoid too great a gap created with Intel).



Ignoring the traders did not come by surprise because we assumed that every piece of advance information will be examined with suspicion and lead to a limited response because it is likely that investors will prefer to sit on the fence which is given monthly employment Peveot most important point each month.



The next employment report will be published this Friday, many investors will examine the employment data private companies greater importance given total employment (as the government is expected to fire the central part of the temporary employees last census project and the overall figure would indicate a decrease of 100,000 jobs, but the important question How many jobs is "real" companies have been added.



Fell in light trading volumes and those cautious investors chose to exercise for trading ups profits last weekend.



Uncertainty at the VIX index (measure of volatility is also called the fear index) leaped by 11% merchants have chosen to withdraw their money in the stock and return the spoon bond market, the yield on bonds to 10 years back down toward 2.53%.



Another enjoys investor fears rate was measured against the currency basket rose by 0.3%, most traffic came almost as a result of weakening of the percentage of the rate against the dollar, compared with rate weak Japanese yen offset part of the continuing strengthening of the dollar to strengthen against him, the strengthening of the wine came despite an unsuccessful first attempt Japanese Central Bank to intervene and weaken the wine trade.







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Dow Jones closed a 1.39% decline of the 10 008 gate



Nasdaq closed 1.56% decline of 2119's Gate



S & P 500 closed 1.47% decline of the cover of 1049



Dax closed 0.65% decline of 5912's Gate



Potts closed the owner of 0.02% on the cover of 5202



Nikkei is trading 3.55% decline of the cover of 8824





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Important macro data continues to be displayed to traders will increase the pace goes up employment figures on Friday.



The big question is are hiding in the data surprise (positively or negatively) large enough to lead the market's movement before the outbreak of the data shuffle on Friday?



Note in particular the Chicago purchasing managers index for U.S. consumer confidence to have them vote on the future of economic activity as observed Eini businesses and consumers.





Table data for today includes:




10:55 change in unemployment in Germany.
11:00 Retail sales in Italy.
11:30 Net loans private mortgage certificates in England.
12:00 Consumer Price Index rate of unemployment in Europe.
13:00 Unemployment in Italy.
15:30 Growth (GDP) in Canada.
16:00 index of home prices in 20 major U.S. cities
16:45 PMI Chicago District of the U.S..
17:00 U.S. consumer confidence index.
21:00 U.S. Fed meeting minutes





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EUR / USD

Overcoming fears of traders as we approach the weekend for the data continue to put pressure on the rate and lead investors to flee the dollar, although the macro data failed to ignite the imagination of investors but did not indicate a deterioration in conditions that significantly strengthened the U.S. dollar defense, then broke the 100 average monthly (1.2803) over last month it seems that rate way to break the average back down, in this situation it seems that the dollar got enough momentum to continue to decline, but again the data published on Friday, investors will likely care Wemmshko profits along the way, rate finished the last drop of 0.77% on the cover of 1.2663, expect for the day: See Graph A.





GBP / USD

The pound continues to shuffle around the 200 daily average from a position of waiting for data from the weekend, the last trading day for a month and a technical point agenda with critical, last month, the pound managed to break and close above the average 20 (1.5542) if and succeed to make her day close above the trend of the average 20 Immigration preserve more likely to continue strengthening but below the average closing may ignite a wave of strong sales would push the pound down, the pound finished the last drop of 0.41% on the cover of 1.5461, forecast for today: see graph in





USD / JPY:

The decline in the pair is one of the pictures most obvious technical Vahpondomantaliut capital market for several months, also if investors feared the intervention of the Japanese central bank would lead to irrational movements in the dollar strengthening Hall artificial wine, arrived yesterday and proved that experience in the Japanese bank's intervention does not lead to a necessary increase in pair, On the other hand the last three years closed each month a new low for the correction led him up (the current month is closed today) and the presence of the pair of 15-year low this increases chances of any technical correction increases, the dollar finished the last drop of 0.78% on the cover of 84.55, Forecast Today: See Graph C





Gold:

Gold continued to stand on hold when investors refuse to get rid of the maintenance of confidence from one gold but yet there has been a significant run-escape gold despite sharp declines in stock markets, it appears that traders prefer to wait as much as possible, review the entire macro data traffic in accordance with the prediction of medium-term to decide whether to run or from gold, gold finished the last drop of 0.08% on the cover of $ 1,236 per ounce, forecast for today: Go shuffling between $ 1,230 to $ 1,240





Oil;

Oil falls back on track against the weaker stock markets and the increasing concerns among world traders that prevents them from entering positions, Asian indices crash at night at dawn (the Japanese Nikkei index losing more than 3.5% now) sends the oil to below $ 74 a barrel and if not there will be significant changes It seems that the direction of oil will continue to be below forecast for today: a decline towards $ 71.60

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